Kimberly Marten

  • Aired:  03/06/14
  •  | Views: 108,380

Professor Kimberly Marten explores why Vladimir Putin has risked so much on Crimea and explains the proper procedures for establishing autonomous states. (5:46)

>> WELCOME BACK, MY GUESTTONIGHT, SHE IS A POLITICAL

SCIENCE PROFESSOR AT BARNARDCOLLEGE COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY,

SHE HAS BEEN WRITING ABOUTTHE CRISIS IN UKRAINE FROM

FOREIGN AFFAIRS MAGAZINE,PLEASE WELCOME KIMBERLY

MARTIN.

HELLO.

>> THANK YOU.

THANK YOU FOR BEING HERE,FOR SOMEONE WHO STUDIES THIS

REGION, THIS MUST BEHORRIFYING AND EXCITING AT

THE SAME TIME.

>> WHEN THINGS GET BAD THERETHEY GET GOOD FOR PEOPLE WHO

STUDY IT.

>> Jon: GOOD FOR PEOPLE WHOSTUDY IT.

>> YEAH.

>> Jon: HERE'S WHAT I KNOWABOUT THE SITUATION.

PUTIN HAS WON.

HE HAS THROUGH SHREWDLEADERSHIP AND A CERTAIN

AMOUNT OF SENSITIVITY OFNIPPLE, HE HAS BROUGHT THE

WEST TO ITS KNEES ANDRECONSTITUTED THE SOVIET

UNION.

HOW CORRECT AM I?

>> NO, IN FACT, THAT'SABSOLUTELY WRONG.

HE LOST AND NOBODY CANFIGURE OUT WHY HE TOOK SUCH

BIG RISK FOR SUCH LITTLEGAIN.

>> NOW THAT HE'S ANINTERESTING TAKE, THAT YOU

HAVE, WHEN YOU SAY IT'S ABIG RISK, WHAT HAS HE

RISKED?

>> WELL, IMMEDIATELY HE'SRISK THAT A GUNSHOT GOES OFF,

NOT JUST ONE THAT GETS INTOTHE SKY BUT ONE THAT IS, FOR

EXAMPLE, FIRED BY A DRUNKSOLDIER, THAT CAUSES THE

WHOLE THING TO BLOW AND UKRAINETO BE IN A CIVIL WAR

WITH RUSSIAN TROOPS THERE.

BUT MORE THAN THAT, HE HASNOW GIVEN UP THE ONE PIECE

OF POWER THAT RUSSIA REALLYHAD AFTER THE COLD WAR THAT

HAD ANY SIGNIFICANCE WHICHWAS THE VETO IN THE U.N.

SECURITY COUNCIL.

BECAUSE HE DIDN'T BOTHER TOGO TO THE U.N. BEFORE HE

DECIDED TO MAKE THISMILITARY MOVE AND THEN

NOBODY IS GOING TO BELIEVERUSSIA EVER AGAIN WHEN THEY

SAY BUT YOU HAVE TO GO TOTHE U.N. SECURITY COUNCIL

FIRST.

>> AW.

BUT LET ME TELL YOU THIS,THEY ARE NOT THERE

MILITARILY.

>> I UNDERSTAND THAT.

I UNDERSTAND THAT, YEAH.

>> Jon: YOU CAN GO OUT ANDBUY RUSSIAN MILITARY

UNIFORMS.

>> YES, YES, SO I'VE HEARD.

>> Jon: AND YOU CAN LEARNRUSSIAN VERY QUICKLY IF YOU

WANT TO.

>> RIGHT, RIGHT.

>> Jon: THIS IS COMPLICATEDFOR NOT JUST RUSSIA BECAUSE

YOU TALK ABOUT PUTIN HASGIVEN UP THE MORAL GROUND IF

HE INDEED HAD ANY.

HOW TOUGH IS IT FOR US TOSAY LET'S SAY PUTIN WANTS TO

TURN IT AROUND ON US AND SAY

I ONLY WENT IN TO CRIMEABECAUSE THIS IS A REGION

THAT WANTS TO BE PART OF THERUSSIAN FEDERATION.

WANTS TO BE INDEPENDENT,LIKE YOU WENT INTO IRAQ, WE

ARE MERELY SPREADINGDEMOCRACY IN THIS REGION.

>> WELL, THERE IS APROCEDURE THAT SHOULD BE

FOLLOWED THROUGHINTERNATIONAL LAW AND, IN

FACT, UKRAINE HAD ALREADYPLANNED THAT IT WAS GOING TO

HAVE A DISCUSSION OFCHANGING THE AUTONOMOUS

STATUS OF CRIMEA AFTER THEMAY ELECTIONS THAT WERE

COMING UP.

THE UKRAINIAN GOVERNMENT ISACTUALLY RELATIVELY A

DEMOCRACY.

THEY DIDN'T QUITE FOLLOW THEPROCEDURES CONSTITUTIONALLY

WHEN THEY GOT RID OFYANUKOVYCH, THE OLD LEADER

BUT THE WAY THEY PUT INPLACE THE NEW LEADERSHIP WAS

BY A MAJORITY VOTE OF APARLIAMENT THAT WAS ELECTED

IN AN ELECTION.

AND SO UKRAINE IS ALREADY ADEMOCRACY.

>> DOES THAT COMPLICATEUKRAINE'S OPTIONS HERE IF

CRIMEA SAYS WE HAVE THROUGHA POPULAR UPRISING

OVERTHROWN THE UKRAINIANLEADERSHIP AND CHOSEN TO BE

PART OF THE RUSSIANFEDERATION, DOES UKRAINE

HAVE A LEG TO STAND ON WHENTHEY SAY BUT THAT'S NOT

CONSTITUTIONAL BECAUSE THEYJUST DID A SIMILAR MANEUVER.

>> BUT THERE IS ADIFFERENCE.

BECAUSE WHAT CRIMEA DID ATTHE POINT THAT THE RUSSIANS

HAD STARTED GOING IN WAS TOREPLACE THEIR LEADERSHIP

WITH A NEW LEADER SO THATPART WAS PARALLEL TO WHAT

HAD HAPPENED IN KIEV AND THEMAJOR PART OF UKRAINE.

BUT THE IDEA OF JUSTBREAKING AWAY AS A PROVINCE

GOING OFF ON ITS OWN,THAT-- THAT IS NOT IN ANY

KIND OF INTERNATIONAL LEGALFRAMEWORK THAT HAS TO COME

WITH THE PERMISSION, THEDISCUSSION OF THE ENTIRE

POPULATION OF UKRAINE, NOTJUST THE PROVINCE BY ITSELF.

>> HOW COMPLICATED WOULD IT BEIF YOU HELD THAT DISCUSSION

WITH THE ENTIRE PROVINCE.

BECAUSE I KNOW LISTEN, I'MSURE THE KURDS ARE WATCHING

THIS AND THINKING I DIDN'TKNOW YOU COULD DO THAT.

I WAS-- I-- IN IRAQ, PART OFTURKEY THERE ARE MANY

REGIONS WHERE THERE IS AMAJORITY POPULATION, PERHAPS

NOT IN CONTROL POLITICALLYTHAT WOULD LIKE TO ESTABLISH

THEIR AUTONOMY ETHNICALLY.

>> BUT YOU KNOW, ONLY 58% OFTHE PEOPLE IN CRIMEA ARE

ETHNICALLY RUSSIAN OR SO WETHINK FROM THE 2001 CENSUS.

THERE IS A BIG MINORITY OFCRIMEAN TATARS-- WHO WEREREALLY

JUST FACED TERRIBLEPERSECUTION THROUGHOUT THE

SOVIET PERIOD, NOW HAVE-- .

>> Jon: SO NOT -- THEY ARENOT NEUTRAL TOWARDS RUSSIA,

THEY ARE-- THEY ARE ACTIVELYHOSTILE.

>> FRIGHTENED OF RUSSIA.

AND THEY HAVE EXPLICITLYSAID THEY HAVE THEIR OWN

FORM OF A LITTLE INFORMALDEMOCRATIC GROUP THAT GETS

TOGETHER AND MEETS. AND THEY'VE

SAID IN THIS GROUPING THEYSUPPORT UKRAINE AND THEY

WANT UKRAINE AND THE ENTIREPOPULATION OF UKRAINE TO BE

INVOLVED IN THIS DECISION.

>> Jon: I UNDERSTAND, YOUKNOW, LOOK, RUSSIA DID THIS

IN GEORGIA.

BUT GEORGIA IS NOWHERE NEARTHE MILITARY OF THE UKRAINE.

I MEAN UKRAINE IS ANENORMOUS COUNTRY IN AND OF

ITSELF WITH A VERY WELLESTABLISHED MILITARY.

>> YES.

THE MILITARY IN UKRAINE ISNOT AS STRONG AS WE MIGHT

LIKE IT TO BE.

BUT THEY'VE CERTAINLYCOOPERATED WITH THE U.S. AND

NATO ALL AROUND THE WORLD.

AND IT SEEMS LIKE THEY'REHOLDING.

AND THAT'S THE ONE REALLYPOSITIVE THING THAT GIVES

STABILITY IN THIS SITUATION.

BUT THE GROUND FORCES ARESTILL HOLDING THAT LITTLE

PIECE OF LAND THAT CONNECTSCRIMEA TO THE REST OF

UKRAINE.

WHEN THAT NAVAL COMMANDERSAID HE WAS DEFECTING TO THE

CRIMEAN SIDE NONE OF THEOFFICERS WENT WITH HIM.

WHEN RUSSIAN HELICOPTERS TRYTO GO FROM THE CRIMEAN PART OF

THE COUNTRY INTO THE REST OFUKRAINE, THEY WERE STOPPED

BY THE UKRAINIAN AIR FORCE,SO FAR THAT MEANS IT IS A

CONTAINED PROBLEM.

>> Jon: SO BASICALLY PUTINHAS WON AND THE WEST IS

WEAK.

THANK YOU FOR BEING HERE.

WILL YOU STICK AND FOR ALITTLE BIT.

WE'LL TALK BRIEFLY MORE, ACOUPLE OF THINGS I WANTED TO

ASK YOU.

KIMBERLY MARTIN.

WE'LL BE RIGHT BACK.

Loading...