Exclusive - Kimberly Marten Extended Interview Pt. 2

  • Aired:  03/06/14
  •  | Views: 51,512

Barnard College Professor Kimberly Marten discusses how Putin can put his shirt back on and diffuse the escalating international tension in Crimea. (6:50)

>> Jon: THANK YOU, WE'REBACK AND TALKING TO BARNARD,

WHAT WOULD YOU SAY, ISIT COLUMBIA BARNARD.

>> BARNARD COLLEGE AT

COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY.

>> Jon: THAT'S RIGHT IT'S A LONGNAME. IT'S A MAIDEN NAME.

>> NOBODY UNDERSTANDS THERELATIONSHIP.

>> Jon: I UNDERSTAND.

SO BASICALLY AMERICANS OFTENLEARN ABOUT REGIONS

INTERNATIONALLY THROUGH WAR.

>> YES.

>> Jon: WE DON'T PAY A LOTOF ATTENTION UNTIL WE START

BOMBING AND THEN WE THINKKABUL, I SHOULD LOOK THAT

UP.

>> EXACTLY.

>> Jon: WHAT DO WE NEED TOKNOW ABOUT THIS.

BECAUSE IF I'M THINKING THATTHIS SMACKS OF 1914-- THIS

SMACKS OF WHAT WAS IT,FERDINAND, ARCHDUKE

FERDINAND.

>> OH, I SEE, OKAY.

>> Jon: THIS HAS A LITTLEWORLD WAR I PATINA ON IT FOR

MY TASTE.

>> I DONE THINK IT IS GOINGTO LEAD TO WORLD WAR I, THOUGH,BECAUSE THERE'S NO --

>> Jon: WELL, WE DON'T HAVEA TIME MACHINE.

THAT WOULD BE TOUGH.

>> YEAH, NO, NO, YOU KNOW,UKRAINE IS NOT PART OF A

MILITARY ALLIANCE WITH THEWESTERN WORLD.

IT'S NOT PART OF THE NATOALLIANCE.

NATO DOES NOT EVER INVITECOUNTRIES TO JOIN UNTIL THEY

HAVE SOLVED THEIR PROBLEMSSO THAT THE COUNTRY THAT IS

INVOLVED IN THE ALLIANCE CANACTUALLY CONTRIBUTE TO THE

WELL-BEING AND SECURITY OFTHE ALLIANCE.

SO I DON'T THINK WE'REFACING A LARGE SCALE WAR

HERE.

I'M JUST MORE CONCERNED, I MEAN,IT COULD BE A SMALL SCALE

WAR IF THINGS GO BADLY.

AT THAT POINT ALL BETS AREOFF IN TERMS OF WHAT WOULD

HAPPEN NEXT BUT I DON'TTHINK ANYBODY WOULD COME IN

ON THE SIDE OF RUSSIA ITWOULD BE RUSSIA FACING

UKRAINE SUPPORTED BY A LOTOF WESTERN COUNTRIES.

>> Jon: WHAT IS THE NEWALLIANCE.

IS THE NEW ALLIANCE RUSSIA,IRAN, WHOEVER ALIGNS WITH

THAT PART AND SORT OF ASYMPATHETIC EAR OF CHINA WHO

HAS THEIR OWN EYE ONAUTONOMOUS REGIONS THAT THEY

FEEL THEY WOULD LIKE TOSUBSUME AS WELL?

IS THAT THE NEW ALLIANCE?

>> NO, I DON'T THINK SOBECAUSE RUSSIA DOESN'T HAVE

A CLOSE SET OF COMMONINTERESTS WITH A LOT OF

THESE OTHER COUNTRIES.

SO CHINA, FOR EXAMPLE, HASBEEN SITTING ON THE FENCE.

THE FIRST THING THAT IT SAIDAFTER THE PROBLEM IN CRIMEA

STARTED WAS THAT ITSUPPORTED THE IDEA OF

TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY.

AND IF YOU ARE'S CHINA OFCOURSE YOU'RE GOING TO SAY

THAT BECAUSE YOU ARE FACINGSEPARATIST PROBLEMS ON YOUR

OWN TERRITORY.

YOU'RE ALSO FACING TAIWAN IFYOU WANT TO BRING BACK INTO

CHINA AND CALL IT PART OFTHE CHINESE COUNTRY.

I DON'T KNOW IF IRAN HAS SAIDANYTHING ABOUT WHAT'S GOING

ON.

WHAT IS REALLY INTERESTINGIS THAT TURKEY SAID THAT IT

IS IN SUPPORT OF UKRAINEEVEN THOUGH TURKEY IS A BIG

TRADING PARTNER WITH RUSSIA.

AND TURKEY SITS RIGHT ON THESTRAITS.

RIGHT ON THE DARDANELLES. RIGHTON THE BASRA.

SO YOU NEED TURKEY'S PERMISSIONTO HAVE

ANY SHIPPING OUT OF CRIMEA.

SO SO FAR TURKEY ISN'TSTOPPING RUSSIA FROM DOING

ANYTHING.

BUT YOU KNOW RUSSIA HAS ALLKINDS OF BARRIERS TO FACE

GOING FORWARD.

>> Jon: WHAT I DON'TUNDERSTAND ABOUT THIS ON A

PURELY ECONOMIC LEVEL ISRUSSIA HAS BENEFITTED SO

GREATLY FROM THIS TRADERELATIONSHIP WITH EUROPE.

>> YES.

>> Jon: AND EUROPE NOW, YOUKNOW, USES THEIR NATURAL

RESOURCES AND IS IN SOMEWAYS DEPENDENT ON IT IN A

WAY THAT MAYBE WE WERE WITHTHE MIDDLE EAST.

AND WHY WOULD THEYJEOPARDIZE THIS FOR WHAT

APPEARS TO BE-- I JUST DON'TUNDERSTAND WHAT IT IS THAT

THEY'RE LOOKING FOR FROMCRIMEA.

>> I DON'T UNDERSTAND ITEITHER.

THEY'RE ACTING AS IF IT'SSTILL THE 19th CENTURY AND

GRABBING LAND MATTERS.

BUT SOMETHING ELSE TO THINKABOUT ON CRIMEA IS THAT IT'S

GOT LOTS OF OLD SOVIETINDUSTRIES LOCATED ON IT.

IT'S GOT CHEMICAL INDUSTRY.

OLD SOVIET STYLE AGRICULTURE,IT'S GOT MINING INDUSTRY.

THEY'RE PROBABLY NOTCOMPETITIVE WITH THE GLOBAL

STANDARD WHICH MEANS THATRUSSIA ISN'T GETTING

ECONOMIC BENEFIT BY TAKINGTHEM OVER.

INSTEAD IT HAS TO PAY THECOSTS OF SUBSIDIZING

THESE INDUSTRIES THAT AREN'TCOMPETITIVE ON THE GLOBAL

LEVEL.

AND RIGHT NOW YOU'RE RIGHT.

EUROPE IS SO DEPENDENT ONTHE NATURAL GAS THAT COMES

FROM RUSSIA.

BUT THEY'RE PROBABLY NOTGOING TO BE ABLE TO TAKE

STRONG ACTIONS IN TERMS OFSANCTIONS RIGHT AWAY.

BUT IF YOU ARE EUROPE,YOU'RE SAYING WAIT A SECOND

IF THIS IS THE PARTNER WE'REDEALING WITH, WE WILL DOEVERYTHING

WE CAN TO DEVELOP SHALE GAS TOIMPROVE OUR IMPORT OF LIQUID

NATURAL GAS FROM THE UNITEDSTATES AND SO FORTH.

AND RIGHT NOW THOSE THINGSAREN'T COST COMPETITIVE.

BUT YOU CAN BET THEY'REGOING TO BECOME MORE COST

COMPETITIVE BECAUSE PEOPLETAKE POLITICAL RISKS INTO

ACCOUNT WHEN THEY ARE MAKINGECONOMIC DECISION, NOT JUST

IMMEDIATE PRICE.

>> Jon: LET ME TELL YOUSOMETHING.

>> OKAY.

>> Jon: YOU SHOULD BE APROFESSOR.

>> SO SHOULD YOU, JON.

LET ME TELL YOU THIS, YOUWERE ABLE TO DESCRIBE THIS

TO ME IN A VERY CLEAR, LUCID,FASCINATING AND YET PLEASANT

WAY.

AND I REALLY WAS TAKINGNOTES.

HOPEFULLY I-- HOPEFULLY IHAVE LEARNED SOMETHING.

>> I TAKE NOTES EVERY TIME IWATCH YOUR SHOW.

>> STOP THAT. SO IN YOUR MIND ISTHERE ANY FACE-SAVING MEASUREFOR

PUTIN AT THIS POINT?

CAN WE GET HIM TO PUT HISSHIRT BACK ON AND GO BACK IN

AND HOW DO WE DO THAT.

>> THE SHIRT I CAN'TGUARANTEE BUT THE ONE

FACE-SAVING THING THAT ISREALLY GOOD IS THAT JOHN KERRY

IS OVER THERE TALKING TO SERGEILAVROV AND TRYING TO GET THE

VARIOUS PARTIES TO BE INCONSULTATION WITH EACH OTHER

AND TO HAVE DISCUSSIONS WITHEACH OTHER.

THE ONE FACE-SAVING THINGMIGHT BE FOR PUTIN'S OWN

PARLIAMENT WHICH HE HANDPICKED TO SAY WE'RE SORRY,

WE DON'T SUPPORT THE IDEA OFTAKE ON CRIMEA AT THE

MOMENT.

IT'S TOO QUICK.

AND THEREFORE WE WOULD LIKETO SEND THIS DECISION BACK

TO CRIMEA AND MAYBE HAVECRIMEA THINK ABOUT HAVING A

BETTER RELATIONSHIP OFAUTONOMY WITHIN UKRAINE.

AND ALREADY THE UNITEDSTATES IS ENCOURAGING

UKRAINE TO THINK ABOUT ITSLANGUAGE LAWS.

TO MAKE RUSSIAN A LANGUAGETHAT IS ACCEPTED FOR-- .

>> Jon: THERE WAS SOMEPROVOCATIVE ACTION AGAINST

CRIMEA FROM THIS NEWUKRAINIAN GOVERNMENT.

>> DEFINITELY.

AND THE UNITED STATES ISTRYING TO GET UKRAINE TO

WALK THAT BACK.

YOU KNOW, IF THE UNITEDSTATES SUCCEEDS IN GETTING

AN INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERFORCE, SOMETHING THAT COMES

FROM THE UNITED NATIONS TOSAY WE WILL DEPLOY NOT

MERELY IN CRIMEA BUT ON ALLUKRAINIAN TERRITORY, WE WILL

WATCH AND MAKE SURE ALL ETHNICGROUPS ARE BEING

TREATED WELL, AT THAT POINTLET'S SAY A FEW WEEKS GO BY,

PUTIN CAN SAY I NOW HAVEASSURANCES FROM THE UNITED

NATIONS THAT EVERYTHING ISGOING WELL HERE, THAT THE

RUSSIAN POPULATION IS NOT INANY DANGER, WE DID GOOD WORK

BY OUR PRESENCE HERE.

WE GOT THE WORLD TO PAYATTENTION TO THAT RUSSIAN

GROUP IN CRIMEA.

WE ARE SO GLAD THAT NOW WECAN TURN IT OVER TO THE

INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY.

RUSSIA HAS PROVEN ITSSTRENGTH ONCE AGAIN.

>> Jon: WRITE THAT UP.

>> OKAY, I WILL.

I WILL.

>> Jon: AND SEND THAT TOHIM.

>> I WILL SEND IT TO FOREIGNAFFAIRS TOMORROW.

>> Jon: HAVE THEY TALKED TOYOU ABOUT THIS, THEY SHOULD

TALK TO YOU. JOHN KERRY

WAS OVER THERE, OH, YEAH, IDON'T KNOW WHAT I'M -- HE'SGOT A

RISK BOARD. HE'S OVER THEREWAITING FOR THE GUY IN THE

SUBWAY TO KNOCK ITOVER. THANK YOU VERYMUCH FOR BEING HERE.

>> MY PLEASURE.

THANK YOU FOR HAVING MEHERE.

>> Jon: HOPEFULLY WE WON'THAVE TO HAVE YOU BACK, THIS

WILL ALL GET SOLVED.BUT SOMETHING

ELSE WILL HAPPEN AND YOU'LL FINDA NEW AVENUE OF STUDY.

>> Jon: KIMBERLY MARTEN, THANKYOU FOR BEING HERE.

>> THANK YOU.

(APPLAUSE)

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