Frequently Asked Questions?

  • Aired:  10/10/12
  •  | Views: 16,589

The media struggles to interpret contradictory poll numbers, and Jason Jones examines a poll of polls to predict the polls favored by poll-addicted pundits. (6:42)

( CHEERS AND APPLAUSE )

>> Jon: WELCOME-- WELCOME

BACK TO THE PROGRAM.

AS WE SAW EARLIER THIS OUR

PROGRAM, THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE

HAS NOW TIGHTENED CONSIDERABLY.

HOW I DO KNOW?

>> A NEW POLL FROM THE PEW

RESEARCH CENTER--

>> GALLUP DAILY TRACKING POLL.

>> RASMUSSEN SWING STATE POLL.

>> EPIC MRA POLL.

>> FOX NEWS POLL.

>> QUINNIPIAC POLL.

>> MARQUETTE UNIVERSITY POLL,

NBC/"WALL STREET JOURNAL" POLL.

>> YOU GET A RED CUP FOR THE

REPUBLICANS, A BLUE CUP FOR THE

DEMOCRATS.

>> Jon: THE NEW TWO-GIRL,

ONE-CUP POLL.

THAT HAS A MARGIN OF ERROR OF--

I HAVE TO SEND THIS POLL TO MY

FRIENDS.

SOME NEWS ANCHORS SEEM ALMOST

ADDICTED TO THE POLLING DATA.

>> I DON'T KNOW ABOUT YOU, BUT

ONE OF THE FIRST THING I TRY TO

DO IN THE MORNING IS CHECK THE

GALLUP TRACKING POLL ON THE

STATE OF RACE FOR PRESIDENT.

( LAUGHTER )

>> Jon: THAT'S THE SADDEST

THING I'VE EVER HEARD.

( LAUGHTER )

ME, I GET UP, I HAVE HALF A

GRAPE FRUIT, DO A LITTLE

JAZZER-SCISE.

THEN I CHECK THE GALLUP TRACKING

POLL.

OF COURSE, THERE'S JUST ONE

SMALL PROBLEM WITH ALL THIS DATA

COMING IN.

IT HAS A TENDENCY TO CONTRADICT

ITSELF.

JUST YESTERDAY, OBAMA WAS

SIMULTANEOUSLY UP BY FOUR, DOWN

BY TWO, AND TIED WITH MITT

ROMNEY.

( LAUGHTER )

YEAH, PHILOSOPHY MAJORS IN THE

( BLEEP ).

( APPLAUSE )

NOW YOU KNOW HOW UNEMPLOYED

PHILOSOPHY MAJORS ARE.

( LAUGHTER )

WHAT DO YOU WANT TO DO TODAY?

I DON'T KNOW, LET'S GO TO SEE A

SHOW OR SOMETHING.

WHAT'S THE DEAL?

DOESN'T MATTER.

WHY ARE WE EVEN HERE?

I DON'T KNOW.

( LAUGHTER )

THE PROBLEM WITH THE POLLS IS

THAT THEY ARE TERRIBLE,

UNRELIABLE.

AND INVALUABLE.

>> THE POLLING THIS YEAR IS THE

WORST IT'S EVER BEEN.

THERE'S ALSO RASMUSSEN POLL THAT

HAS ROMNEY THREE HEY, 47-44.

>> A LOT OF THESE POLLS WHERE

YOU SEE THE PRESIDENT WITH,

LIKE, A FIVE- OR SIX-POINT LEAD,

YOU GO INTO THE INTERNALS AND

YOU SEE THEY'VE BEEN

OVER-SAMPLING DEMOCRATS BY,

LIKE, NINE, OR EVEN, 10 OR EVEN

13 POINTS.

>> ACTUALLY, GREG, THERE WAS A

BRAND NEW NATIONAL BLOOMBERG

POLL RELEASED TODAY SHOWING

GOVERNOR ROMNEY LEADING

PRESIDENT OBAMA ON THE ISSUE OF

TERRORISM BY SIX POINT.

>> Jon: HOW THE HELL ARE

THESE POLLS SO DIVERGENT,

USELESS, ACCURATE, YET QUOTABLE?

I THINK WE ALL KNOW WHAT WE

NEED?

NERDS!

>> WHEN YOU SEE OBAMAING GAINING

IN TODAY'S POLL, THAT MEANS

OBAMA'S INTERVIEWS YESTERDAY

WERE BETTER THAN SEVEN DAYS AGO

CONDUCTED BEFORE THE DEBATE.

HE WENT FROM THREE AHEAD IN THE

SEVEN-DAY TRACK YESTERDAY TO

FIVE AHEAD IN THE TRACK TODAY.

THE NEXT ROUND OF SWING STATE

POLLS SHOWS THE SWING STATES

TIED, THEN DEMOCRATS REALLY

WILL-- IT WILL BE APPROPRIATE

FOR THEM TO PANIC.

( LAUGHTER )

( APPLAUSE )

>> Jon: NOBODY UNDERSTANDS

THESE THINGS BUT THOSE GUYS.

AND THEY'RE NOT TELLING US

ANYTHING.

IS THERE ANYTHING THAT CAN HELP

US GET A CLEARER PICTURE?

>> REAL CLEAR POLITICS DOESN'T

AVERAGE OF ALL THE POLLS.

>> NEW NATIONWIDE POLL OF POLLS.

>> WHEN YOU DO A POLL OF POLLS,

YOU GET A SNAPSHOT.

YOU GET A TREND OF WHAT'S GOING

ON.

>> Jon: OH, THE POLL OF

POLLS.

WHY DIDN'T I THINK OF THAT.

A POLL IS NO GOOD, BUT WHAT

ABOUT A POLL POLL.

A POLL POLL WILL BE GOOD.

NOT OF COURSE TO BE CONFUSED

WITH A POLL OF POLLS.

THAT REMINDS ME OF A JOKE.

HOW MANY POLLS DOES IT TAKE TO

CONDUCT AN OPINION POLL?

IT'S 400 BECAUSE IN A COUNTRY OF

40 MILLION... THAT WOULD

CONSTITUTE A REPRESENTATIVE

SAMPLE.

IT'S NOT A VERY GOOD JOKE.

( LAUGHTER ).

FOR MORE ON THE LATEST

PRESIDENTIAL POLLS WE'RE JOINED

BY SENIOR POLL WATCHER JASON

JONES.

JASON.

( CHEERS AND APPLAUSE )

>> THERE'S A LOT OF

CONTRADICTORY INFORMATION.

SO WHICH POLLS SHOULD WE BE

PAYING ATTENTION TO?

>> WELL, THAT IS THE QUESTION,

ISN'T IT?

WHICH POLLS TO THE PUNDITS

PREFER.

>> Jon: I'M SORRY, I DIDN'T

KNOW YOU WORE GLASSES.

>> I DON'T.

BUT THEY DON'T LET YOU IN THE

POLL WATCHER CLUB WITHOUT A PAIR

OF NERD GOGGLES.

>> Jon: CAN YOU SEE OUT OF

THOSE AT ALL?

>> NOT A THING.

>> Jon: WHICH POLLS ARE THE

PUNDITS FAVORING?

>> WELL, BEFORE THE DEBUT

MAJORITY WERE LEANING TOWARDS

PEW AND GALLUP, BUT LOOK WHAT'S

HAPPENED IN THE LAST WEEK AIR,

MASSIVE THREE-POINT SWING

TOWARDS QUINNIPIAC AND ARG,

UNMARRIED PEOPLE PUNDITS AND

BLUE COLLAR BLOGGERS TWOK KEY

DEMOGRAPHICS.

>> Jon: DO YOU THINK THAT'S A

SOFT BOUNCE OR STICKY BOUNCE.

>>> I'VE SEEN A LOT STICKIER,

JON.

AFTER ALL, I'M A POLL WATCHER.

( LAUGHTER )

( APPLAUSE )

>> Jon: POLL HUMOR FOR YOU.

>> WHEN YOU SLIDE DOWN THE POLL

THIS WEEK, RASMUSSEN IS GOING TO

BE FAVORED BY LIKELY PUNDITS BUT

CNN INSTAPOLL POLL IS POLLING

WELL AMONG PUNDITS WHO NO LONGER

GIVE A BLEEP.

>> Jon: THAT'S GOT TO BE A

BIG DEMOGRAPHIC.

>> IT'S THE BIGGEST DEMOGRAPHIC.

>> Jon: ANY INDICATION OF

WHICH POLLS WILL PULL AWAY FROM

THE PACK?

>> LET'S LOOK AT OUR PAIL

TRACKING POLL TRACKING POLL.

IT'S A GOOD DAY FOR GALLUP FIVE

DAY BUT A BAD DAY FOR ITS

THREE-DAY.

BEAR IN MIND, ALL OF THAT COULD

CHANGE AS OF RIGHT NOW.

>> Jon: WELL, OBVIOUSLY,

WHEN WE GET THE RESULT OF THE

LATEST ABC, "WASHINGTON POST,"

NABISCO.

>> JON, DON'T MAKE STUFF UP.

>> SORRY.

WHAT CAN WE EXPECT ON ELECTION

DAY?

>> OUR FORECAST PREDICTS ON THE

NIGHT OF TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 6,

INTEREST IN POLLS WILL PLUNGE TO

PER SENT PER.

>> Jon: FASCINATING.

ANY MARGIN OF ERROR?

>> NONE AT ALL.

ZERO.

>> Jon: THANK YOU, JASON

JONES, EVERYBODY.

WE'LL BE RIGHT BACK.

Loading...